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 Kelowna






Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty Measures for Ordinal Classification through Binary Reduction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ordinal classification problems, where labels exhibit a natural order, are prevalent in high-stakes fields such as medicine and finance. Accurate uncertainty quantification, including the decomposition into aleatoric (inherent variability) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) components, is crucial for reliable decision-making. However, existing research has primarily focused on nominal classification and regression. In this paper, we introduce a novel class of measures of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in ordinal classification, which is based on a suitable reduction to (entropy- and variance-based) measures for the binary case. These measures effectively capture the trade-off in ordinal classification between exact hit-rate and minimial error distances. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on various tabular ordinal benchmark datasets using ensembles of gradient-boosted trees and multi-layer perceptrons for approximate Bayesian inference. Our method significantly outperforms standard and label-wise entropy and variance-based measures in error detection, as indicated by misclassification rates and mean absolute error. Additionally, the ordinal measures show competitive performance in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the ordinal nature of classification problems when assessing uncertainty.


Local Polynomial Lp-norm Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The local least squares estimator for a regression curve cannot provide optimal results when non-Gaussian noise is present. Both theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that residuals often exhibit distributional properties different from those of a normal distribution, making it worthwhile to consider estimation based on other norms. It is suggested that $L_p$-norm estimators be used to minimize the residuals when these exhibit non-normal kurtosis. In this paper, we propose a local polynomial $L_p$-norm regression that replaces weighted least squares estimation with weighted $L_p$-norm estimation for fitting the polynomial locally. We also introduce a new method for estimating the parameter $p$ from the residuals, enhancing the adaptability of the approach. Through numerical and theoretical investigation, we demonstrate our method's superiority over local least squares in one-dimensional data and show promising outcomes for higher dimensions, specifically in 2D.


Federated Testing (FedTest): A New Scheme to Enhance Convergence and Mitigate Adversarial Attacks in Federating Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated Learning (FL) has emerged as a significant paradigm for training machine learning models. This is due to its data-privacy-preserving property and its efficient exploitation of distributed computational resources. This is achieved by conducting the training process in parallel at distributed users. However, traditional FL strategies grapple with difficulties in evaluating the quality of received models, handling unbalanced models, and reducing the impact of detrimental models. To resolve these problems, we introduce a novel federated learning framework, which we call federated testing for federated learning (FedTest). In the FedTest method, the local data of a specific user is used to train the model of that user and test the models of the other users. This approach enables users to test each other's models and determine an accurate score for each. This score can then be used to aggregate the models efficiently and identify any malicious ones. Our numerical results reveal that the proposed method not only accelerates convergence rates but also diminishes the potential influence of malicious users. This significantly enhances the overall efficiency and robustness of FL systems.


FORLAPS: An Innovative Data-Driven Reinforcement Learning Approach for Prescriptive Process Monitoring

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a novel 5-step framework called Fine-Tuned Offline Reinforcement Learning Augmented Process Sequence Optimization (FORLAPS), which aims to identify optimal execution paths in business processes using reinforcement learning. We implemented this approach on real-life event logs from our case study an energy regulator in Canada and other real-life event logs, demonstrating the feasibility of the proposed method. Additionally, to compare FORLAPS with the existing models (Permutation Feature Importance and multi-task LSTM-Based model), we experimented to evaluate its effectiveness in terms of resource savings and process time span reduction. The experimental results on real-life event log validate that FORLAPS achieves 31% savings in resource time spent and a 23% reduction in process time span. Using this innovative data augmentation technique, we propose a fine-tuned reinforcement learning approach that aims to automatically fine-tune the model by selectively increasing the average estimated Q-value in the sampled batches. The results show that we obtained a 44% performance improvement compared to the pre-trained model. This study introduces an innovative evaluation model, benchmarking its performance against earlier works using nine publicly available datasets. Robustness is ensured through experiments utilizing the Damerau-Levenshtein distance as the primary metric. In addition, we discussed the suitability of datasets, taking into account their inherent properties, to evaluate the performance of different models. The proposed model, FORLAPS, demonstrated exceptional performance, outperforming existing state-of-the-art approaches in suggesting the most optimal policies or predicting the best next activities within a process trace.


SAIF: A Comprehensive Framework for Evaluating the Risks of Generative AI in the Public Sector

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid adoption of generative AI in the public sector, encompassing diverse applications ranging from automated public assistance to welfare services and immigration processes, highlights its transformative potential while underscoring the pressing need for thorough risk assessments. Despite its growing presence, evaluations of risks associated with AI-driven systems in the public sector remain insufficiently explored. Building upon an established taxonomy of AI risks derived from diverse government policies and corporate guidelines, we investigate the critical risks posed by generative AI in the public sector while extending the scope to account for its multimodal capabilities. In addition, we propose a Systematic dAta generatIon Framework for evaluating the risks of generative AI (SAIF). SAIF involves four key stages: breaking down risks, designing scenarios, applying jailbreak methods, and exploring prompt types. It ensures the systematic and consistent generation of prompt data, facilitating a comprehensive evaluation while providing a solid foundation for mitigating the risks. Furthermore, SAIF is designed to accommodate emerging jailbreak methods and evolving prompt types, thereby enabling effective responses to unforeseen risk scenarios. We believe that this study can play a crucial role in fostering the safe and responsible integration of generative AI into the public sector.


Neural Deconstruction Search for Vehicle Routing Problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autoregressive construction approaches generate solutions to vehicle routing problems in a step-by-step fashion, leading to high-quality solutions that are nearing the performance achieved by handcrafted, operations research techniques. In this work, we challenge the conventional paradigm of sequential solution construction and introduce an iterative search framework where solutions are instead deconstructed by a neural policy. Throughout the search, the neural policy collaborates with a simple greedy insertion algorithm to rebuild the deconstructed solutions. Methods that can learn to solve complex optimization problems have the potential to transform decision-making processes across virtually all domains. It is therefore unsurprising that learningbased optimization approaches have garnered significant attention and yielded substantial advancements (Bello et al., 2016; Kool et al., 2019; Kwon et al., 2020). Notably, reinforcement learning (RL) approaches are particularly promising because they do not rely on a pre-defined training set of representative solutions and can develop new strategies from scratch for novel optimization problems. These methods generally construct solutions incrementally through a sequential decision-making process and have been successfully applied to various vehicle routing problems. Despite recent progress, learning-based methods for combinatorial optimization (CO) problems usually fall short of outperforming the state-of-the-art techniques from the operations research (OR) community. For instance, while some new construction approaches for the capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP) have surpassed the LKH3 solver (Helsgaun, 2000), they still struggle to match the performance of the state-of-the-art HGS solver (Vidal et al., 2012), particularly for larger instances with over 100 nodes. One reason for this is their inability to explore as many solutions as traditional approaches within the same amount of time.